  The perma-meme for this year's Presidential race is that we have a "bitterly divided electorate," and that the race will go down to the wire. And there's no faction more willing to remind people of this concept than the media. Of course, the media has a vested interest in selling the public on the idea of a "close race. " If people believe it will be a close race, they'll be more apt to tune into political coverage and, of course, to the "polls. " And that means more money for them. Remember folks: viewers and readers = advertising revenue for them.
Then, there's the nervous/fickle right. For obvious reasons, the media wants Bush out and Kerry in. And they are well aware that, if conservatives actually vote, in large numbers, Kerry has no chance. So, part of the reason for the "close race" meme is to depress turnout among the fickle, nervous right. These are people who almost search for reasons not to vote. If the media can get enough of them to believe that Bush will not win, that will result in many of them giving up and staying home.
The media wants a self-fulfilling prophecy, in other words. In any event, what are the real chances that this contest actually will be close? Slim to none. Item No. 1 Not including the 2000 election, there have been 13 Presidential contests since the end of WWII. Four of those other elections -- 1948, 1960, 1968, 1976 -- were extremely close.
In each instance, however, the very next election was a monumental landslide. Ike blew away Stevenson in 1952. LBJ obliterated Goldwater in 1964 (winning over 61 percent of the vote). Nixon destroyed McGovern in 1972 (winning 49 out of 50 states). And Reagan annihilated Carter in 1980 (winning 44 states and a 10-point margin of victory in the popular vote). Item No.
2 There is a fundamental difference between Presidential contests involving incumbent Presidents and those involving Vice Presidents, or, on the other hand, open races. Over the past 56 years, only two sitting Presidents have been involved in close elections: Harry Truman, in 1948, and Gerald Ford, in 1976. In each other instance, the President either won in a monumental landslide (1956, 1964, 1972, 1984, 1996), or they lost in a landslide (1980, 1992). Not surprisingly, neither Truman nor Ford were elected Presidents. Vice President Truman, of course, took over for FDR upon the latter's death. And Ford?
Ford was not even an elected VP. He was appointed to fill the VP slot, upon the scandal-charged resignation of Spiro Agnew. Then, he succeeded to the Presidency upon the resignation of Nixon. As of November 1976, Ford never had been elected to anything other than a Congressional District. And he still almost won the election. In fact, if there were such a thing as GOP grass roots efforts, back then, he likely would have won the Electoral College.
Item No. 3 The 2000 election was a fluke. A confluence of factors that are not likely ever to be repeated again. First, we were in the midst of the most speculative asset bubble (tech/telecom stocks) in our entire history. Second, there was a late hit on the leading candidate that actually caused a material amount of voters to stay home. Finally, the leading candidate stopped campaigning almost a week before election day.
Folks, that's not going to happen again. And Bush is the incumbent. And Kerry is a bad candidate. Yes, it's possible that the race will be close. I wouldn't bet on it, however. And, frankly, there's a way for conservatives to make this whole issue moot: On Nov. 2nd, regardless of what the "polls" say, and irrespective of how loud Chris Matthews and Gloria Borger are yelling at you to not bother, because Kerry has "won" .
. . VOTE!! ! 
